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Developing A Likelihood-Based Modeling Approach To Predict Atmospheric Corrosion Rates Using Corrosion Sensor Technologies

Product Number: 51321-16806-SG
Author: Erin C. DeCarlo; James F. Dante; Erica N. Macha
Publication Date: 2021
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$20.00
$20.00

The current approach to corrosion severity prediction is to use long-term averages of environmental parameters (such as relative humidity, temperature, and pollutants), geographic features (such as coastal proximity), and witness coupon corrosion rates for indicator materials to classify an environment into one of a small number of severity categories. However, recent work has revealed that brief changes in environmental conditions-even those lasting only a few hours-can significantly affect total corrosion damage, and long-term averages of environmental conditions are not sufficient to accurately predict cumulative corrosion damage. Recent improvements in corrosion sensing technology have made corrosion sensors a possible replacement for-or at least an enhancement to-the severity classification approach. Recent modeling efforts have demonstrated that greater prediction accuracy is achieved using corrosion rate models trained under constant salt loads, such as those in between precipitation events. Thus, this paper first describes a novel likelihood-based salt load identification algorithm to improve long-term corrosion rate predictions across events that change surface salt loading densities by tracking salt loading characteristics on the sensor.  The developed likelihood­ based salt load identification algorithm is then used to weight corresponding corrosion rate prediction models trained using data collected from laboratory exposures of corrosion sensors for which the salt loading was controlled and periodically changed. The improvement in the corrosion rate and total corrosion damage predictions across exposures are evaluated for multiple sensors, salt loading densities, and exposures.

The current approach to corrosion severity prediction is to use long-term averages of environmental parameters (such as relative humidity, temperature, and pollutants), geographic features (such as coastal proximity), and witness coupon corrosion rates for indicator materials to classify an environment into one of a small number of severity categories. However, recent work has revealed that brief changes in environmental conditions-even those lasting only a few hours-can significantly affect total corrosion damage, and long-term averages of environmental conditions are not sufficient to accurately predict cumulative corrosion damage. Recent improvements in corrosion sensing technology have made corrosion sensors a possible replacement for-or at least an enhancement to-the severity classification approach. Recent modeling efforts have demonstrated that greater prediction accuracy is achieved using corrosion rate models trained under constant salt loads, such as those in between precipitation events. Thus, this paper first describes a novel likelihood-based salt load identification algorithm to improve long-term corrosion rate predictions across events that change surface salt loading densities by tracking salt loading characteristics on the sensor.  The developed likelihood­ based salt load identification algorithm is then used to weight corresponding corrosion rate prediction models trained using data collected from laboratory exposures of corrosion sensors for which the salt loading was controlled and periodically changed. The improvement in the corrosion rate and total corrosion damage predictions across exposures are evaluated for multiple sensors, salt loading densities, and exposures.

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