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Development of a Probabilistic Model for Assessing Pipeline Third Party Damage Threats

Third Party Damage (TPD) represents the largest threat to the integrity of onshore oil and gas pipelines. There exist needs for developing reliable models that can quantify the probability of pipeline exposure to TPD threats. Bayesian network(BN) modeling possesses the advantage to quantify the uncertainties and identify where the reduction of these uncertainties has the greatest benefit in terms of the overall failure. This paper reports a modeling approach using Bayesian Network to quantify the Mechanical damage (a major form of TPD) threats to pipeline. Case studies to exam excavation and moving vehicles damages to the pipeline were reported where the conditional probability tables (CPT) of the model were created based on the pipeline operator’s records public data-bases and literatures as well as information obtained from Subject Matter Experts. This model examines TPD failure mechanisms in three parts including Exposure (likelihood of a force or failure mechanism reaching the pipe when no mitigation applied) Mitigation (actions devices conditions etc. that keep the force or failure mechanism off the pipe) and Resistance (the system’s ability to resist a force or failure mechanism applied to the pipe). Using this model pipeline segment with a higher risk to excavation and moving vehicles damages can be identified and suitable mitigation technology can then be implemented to reduce the risk.

Product Number: 51319-12719-SG
Author: Shan Guan
Publication Date: 2019
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