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Estimating corrosion growth rates for underground pipelines is a challenging problem. There are confounding variables with complex interaction effects that may result in unexpected outcomes. For instance, the relationship between soil conditions and AC interference is highly non-linear and challenging to model. This work expands upon prior work using a suite of machine learning tools to estimate corrosion rates. However, instead of estimating a single corrosion growth rate for a single girth weld address (GWA), this work estimates a distribution of potential corrosion growth rates. Modeling distributions provide a more effective risk-measurement framework, especially concerning high volatility or areas of severe tail risk.
This work relies heavily on machine learning and geospatial tools - particularly artificial neural networks and gradient boosted trees to estimate the corrosion rates and non-linear processes. Building upon prior work using data from a North American Operator, the models in this paper use additional variables from recent research in AC interference and microbiologically influenced corrosion to construct a higher accuracy and distribution-based model of pipeline corrosion risk.
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The intention of this work is to pose epistemic questions about corrosion measurement, statistical inference, and the role of machine learning in predicting corrosion growth. The audience of this work is practitioners implementing inferential algorithms or tools for corrosion prediction. In this work, an algorithm consists of a process for estimating the presence and severity of corrosion.
One of the pillars of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) is to let machines make decisions on behalf of humans; this paper describes new technology that allows machines to decide inspection programs and field validation and testing of results. The technology described is a part of integrity management, and uses data, statistics and expert decisions to design inspection programs. These inspection programs are an important part of the safeguarding of equipment to maintain production and safety.This technology is a data-driven predictive model of material loss from corrosion, based on domain expert input and historical data in the form of non-destructive testing (NDT) tests. The technology trends is based on historical data and SME input, while accounting for uncertainties in NDT measurements, with uncertainties in historical trends and uncertainties in future trends. This produces a more realistic failure prediction to enhance existing RBIs and adds safety by improving on early detection of trends in data. In total, this enables the machine to update inspection plans autonomously, reducing the number of inspections significantly.The paper also describes how the technology can be developed further to use production data and integrity operating windows to improve predictions, deal with localised corrosion and assess if the test points on a corrosion circuit are sufficient, can be reduced in number or should be manually evaluated by adding more test points.
Corrosion of metallic structures is a ubiquitous problem in industries such as power generation, oil and gas, pulp and paper, metals processing etc. which also results in significant financial losses. According to the National Association of Corrosion Engineers (NACE) International report, the global cost of corrosion was ~ 2.5 trillion USD in 2013 - close to 3.4 percent GDP of the entire world. The use of corrosion inhibitors is one of the most effective and economical ways to mitigate corrosion of metal and alloy components. Corrosion inhibitors are substances that are added in small quantities in corrosive media to protect metal and alloy components from corrosion.
Managing external corrosion, especially for underground assets, is a significant challenge dating back to the first underground pipeline in 1865. The very first issue of the journal, CORROSION, featured a headline story on this subject. This subject is fundamental for corrosion engineers and pipeline operators.
In most engineering and scientific applications, machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) methods in general, are primarily oriented to design a statistical/heuristic procedure to predict the outcome of a system under new conditions. This mechanism aims at exploring non-evident correlations between inputs and outputs that are embedded in the data. However, a large body of this effort relies on black-box function approximations (e.g., neural networks) that have shown limitations to elucidate additional insights from the underlying physical process that generated the data. Thus, this type of knowledge is generated in a data-driven manner without fully explaining the physics governing the problem.